Fear of increasing inflation in the U.S. appear to be the trigger behind the market volatility of previous weeks. Recent gains in hourly compensation to workers have had analysts measuring the effect of wages on inflation. In turn, analysts began pondering changes in Fed's monetary policy due to the apparent overheating path of the economy; … Continue reading Rent Prices Stickiness and the Latest CPI Data.
On February 5th, 2018, Dow Jones index fell 1,175 points after the trading day. Four economic scenarios are being analyzed in the news as of the first week of February 2018. First, there are indeed both Stock Market and bonds Bubbles. Second, the Monday Dow’s selloff is just an anticipated correction move on the investor's … Continue reading Recent Narratives of Stock and Bond Bubbles.
The US economy added 228,000 new jobs in November of 2017 and analysts rush to assess the state of the economy as “STRONG.” Although the job reports are indeed good indicators of the performance of the US economy, one should not simplify the job report as the snapshot of the economy that allows for those … Continue reading The overuse of the word “Strong” in economic news.
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The series of documents published by the White House Council of Economic Advisers indicate that President Donald Trump’s Tax Reform will end up being his economic growth policy. The most persuasive pitch behind the corporate tax cut is that lowering taxes to corporations will foster economic investment thereby economic growth. Further, the political rhetoric refers … Continue reading Raising economic expectations with the “after-tax” reckon: President Trump’s corporate tax cut plan.
One of the most recurrent questions in quantitative research refers to on how to assess and rank the relevance of variables included in multiple regression models. This type of uncertainty arises most of the time when researches prioritize data mining over well-thought theories. Recently, a contact of mine in social media formulated the following question: … Continue reading Implications of “Regression Fishing” over Cogent Modeling.
In a previous post, I covered how heteroscedasticity "happened" to me. The anecdote I mentioned mostly pertains to time series data. Given the purpose of the research that I was developing back then, change over time played a key factor in the variables I analyzed. The fact that the rate of change manifested over time … Continue reading I recognized Heteroscedasticity by running this flawed regression.
Economists and policy analysts continue to wonder what is going on in the U.S. economy currently. Most of the uncertainty stems from both the anemic pace of economic growth as well as from fears of a new recession. In regards to economic growth, analysts point out to sluggish changes in productivity, while fears of new … Continue reading The Current Need for Mixed Methods in Economics.
One month of weak payroll data does not make a crisis. The US economy appears to have added only 160,000 new jobs during the month of April in 2016, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. A similar number was published earlier in that week by the payroll firm ADP. Although the slowdown in … Continue reading U.S. economic slowdown? Look at Real Estate labor market.
Although the Federal Open Market Committee (hereafter FOMC) March’s meeting on monetary policy focused on what apparently was a disagreement over the timing for modifying the Federal Bonds interest rates, the minutes indicate that the disagreement is not only on timing issues but also on exchange rate challenges. Not only does the Fed struggle with … Continue reading Unemployment √. Inflation √. So… what is the Fed worrying about?