On February 5th, 2018, Dow Jones index fell 1,175 points after the trading day. Four economic scenarios are being analyzed in the news as of the first week of February 2018. First, […]
Recent Narratives of Stock and Bond Bubbles.
The overuse of the word “Strong” in economic news.
The US economy added 228,000 new jobs in November of 2017 and analysts rush to assess the state of the economy as “STRONG.” Although the job reports are indeed good indicators of […]
Tempering retail sales expectations on holiday season 2017.
The US Holiday Season started with high anxiety for the Retail Industry as online retailers registered high volume of sales on Black Friday 2017. Pre-holiday season reports signaled not much change in […]
Raising economic expectations with the “after-tax” reckon: President Trump’s corporate tax cut plan.
The series of documents published by the White House Council of Economic Advisers indicate that President Donald Trump’s Tax Reform will end up being his economic growth policy. The most persuasive pitch […]
Implications of “Regression Fishing” over Cogent Modeling.
One of the most recurrent questions in quantitative research refers to on how to assess and rank the relevance of variables included in multiple regression models. This type of uncertainty arises most […]
I recognized Heteroscedasticity by running this flawed regression.
In a previous post, I covered how heteroscedasticity “happened” to me. The anecdote I mentioned mostly pertains to time series data. Given the purpose of the research that I was developing back […]
The Current Need for Mixed Methods in Economics.
Economists and policy analysts continue to wonder what is going on in the U.S. economy currently. Most of the uncertainty stems from both the anemic pace of economic growth as well as […]
U.S. economic slowdown? Look at Real Estate labor market.
One month of weak payroll data does not make a crisis. The US economy appears to have added only 160,000 new jobs during the month of April in 2016, the Bureau of […]
Unemployment √. Inflation √. So… what is the Fed worrying about?
Although the Federal Open Market Committee (hereafter FOMC) March’s meeting on monetary policy focused on what apparently was a disagreement over the timing for modifying the Federal Bonds interest rates, the minutes […]
Why Is the Homeownership Rate Still Falling? An alternative explanation.
When it comes to loan rates, the one that concerns the most regular consumers is the mortgage loan interest rate. This past February 2016 a 30-year mortgage interest rate averaged 3.66 percent […]
