The stock market seems to be returning to the old normal of higher levels of volatility. I suggested on Tuesday that former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan’s comments could have brought back volatility by triggering the Dow Sell-off on Monday, February 5th. As I wrote early in the week, I believe that we should observe some panic manifestation … Continue reading Timorous evidence of “Contagious Effect” after Dow Sell-Off.
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The series of documents published by the White House Council of Economic Advisers indicate that President Donald Trump’s Tax Reform will end up being his economic growth policy. The most persuasive pitch behind the corporate tax cut is that lowering taxes to corporations will foster economic investment thereby economic growth. Further, the political rhetoric refers … Continue reading Raising economic expectations with the “after-tax” reckon: President Trump’s corporate tax cut plan.
Data on both unemployment and prices have monetary policy analysts wondering whether or not the US supply side of the economy is heading towards overheating. Thus far, indicators on industrial production and capacity utilization show there is still room for the economy to advance at a good pace without risking too many resources. Such indicators … Continue reading “Core” inflation might be reflecting pressures solely generated by retailers.
The unemployment rate continues to decline in July 2015 for most of the metropolitan areas within the United States. 92% of the metropolitan areas in the Nation experienced lower unemployment rates than a year earlier while only 20 metro areas showed higher rates. In 8 out of 389 metropolitan areas, rates were unchanged. Metro areas … Continue reading Unemployment rate continues to decline in July 2015.
Summer enthusiasm in the Midwest lasted short. The season has not ended yet, as business leaders started to pose concerns in the months to come. The Tenth District Manufacturing Survey revealed that manufacturing activity declined moderately in August 2015. Not only manufacturing declined, but also optimism about future economic activity. Economic expectation in the Midwest … Continue reading Summer’s economic optimism vanishes with the season in the Midwest.
Regional and State statistics on employment and unemployment for the month of July 2015 looked motionless for the great majority of States in terms of over-the-month changes. Over-the-year though, nonfarm employment increased in 47 states and deceased in 2. In terms of employment levels, the greatest over-the-month increases were seen in California (+80,700), Texas (+31,400) … Continue reading Despite job losses, New Jersey’s labor market looks vibrant rather than sclerotic.
The use of the Average Statistic deceives readers very often whenever the Mean gets severely affected by outliers within the data. One of the most repeated critics to data analysts is the unaware use of average figures, which frequently leads to dubious generalizations. Social scientists, those of whom refuse to use statistics in their analysis, … Continue reading Real Earnings and the use of Dubious Statistics.
Follow up on US Construction Industry Data. At the beginning of the summer of 2015, both labor statistics on employment levels and US Gross Domestic Product showed a slowdown on job creation coming from construction related activities. Given that the summer represents a time window for developers to build fast thanks to good weather conditions, … Continue reading Follow up on US Construction Industry Data.
After a year of declining crude oil prices which forged price spillovers all over the US economy, it is time for economists to look at price changes without accounting for the petrol effect. So far, 2015 has been a year in which dropping gas prices have affected almost every index from the US Bureau of … Continue reading It’s time to look at price changes without accounting for oil price effect.