Rent Prices Stickiness and the Latest CPI Data.

Fear of increasing inflation in the U.S. appear to be the trigger behind the market volatility of previous weeks. Recent gains in hourly compensation to workers have had analysts measuring the effect of wages on inflation. In turn, analysts began pondering changes in Fed’s monetary policy due to the apparent overheating path of the economy; which is believed to be mostly led by low unemployment rate and tight labor markets. Thus, within the broad measure of inflation, the piece that will help to complete the puzzle comes from housing market data. Although the item “Shelter” in Consumer Price Index was among the biggest increases for the month of January 2018, for technical definitions, its estimation does weight down the effect of housing prices over the CPI. Despite the strong argument on BLS’ imputation of Owner-Occupied Equivalent Rent, I consider relevant to take a closer look at the Shelter component of the CPI from a different perspective. That is, despite the apparent farfetched correlation between housing prices and market rents, it is worth visualizing how such correlation might hypothetically work and affect inflation. The first step in doing so is identifying the likely magnitude of the effect of house prices over the estimates and calculation of rent prices.

Given what we know so far about rent prices stickiness, Shelter cost estimation, and interest rates, the challenge in completing the puzzle consists of understanding the linking element between housing prices (which are considered capital goods instead of consumables) and inflation. Such link can be traced by looking at the relation between home prices and the price-to-rent ratio. In bridging the conceptual differences between capital goods (not measured in CPI) and consumables (measured in CPI) the Bureau of Labor Statistics forged a proxy for the amount a homeowner ought to pay if the house was rented instead: Owner-Occupied Equivalent Rent. This proxy hides the market value of the house by simply equaling nearby rent prices without controlling by house quality. Perhaps, Real Estate professional can shed light onto this matter.

The Setting Rent Prices by Brokers.

It is often said that rental prices do not move in the same direction as housing prices. Indeed, in an interview with Real Estate professional Hamilton Rodrigues from tr7re.com, he claimed that there is not such a relationship. Nonetheless, when asked about how he sets prices for newly rent properties, his answer hints at a link between housing prices and rent prices. Mr. Rodrigues’ estimates for rent prices equal either the average or the median of at least five “comparable” properties within a mile radius. The key word in Mr. Rodrigues statement is comparable. As a broker, he knows that rent prices go up if the value of the house goes up because of house improvements and remodeling. Those home improvements represent a deal-breaker from the observed stickiness of rent prices.

For the same reason, when a house gets an overhaul, one may expect a bump in rent price. That bump must reflect in CPI and inflation. I took Zillow’s data for December of 2017 for the fifty U.S. States, and run a simple linear OLS model. By modeling the Log of Price-to-Rent Ratio Index as a dependent outcome of housing prices -I believe- it will be feasible to infer an evident spillover of increasing house prices over current inflation expectations. The two independent variables are the Logs of House Price Index bottom tier and the Logs of House Prices Index top tier. I assume here that when a house gets an overhaul, it will switch from the bottom tier data set to the top tier data set.

Results and Conclusion.

The result table below shows the beta coefficients are consistent with what one might expect: the top tier index has a more substantial impact in the variation of the Price-to-Rent variable (estimated β₂= .12, and standardized β=.24, versus β=.06 for the Bottom tier). Hence, I would infer that overhauls might signal the link through which houses as a capital goods could affect consumption indexes (CPI and CEI). Once one has figured the effect of house prices on inflation, the picture of rising inflation nowadays will get clearer and more precise. By this means predictions on Fed tightening and accommodating policies will become more evident as well.

“Core” inflation might be reflecting pressures solely generated by retailers.

Data on both unemployment and prices have monetary policy analysts wondering whether or not the US supply side of the economy is heading towards overheating. Thus far, indicators on industrial production and capacity utilization show there is still room for the economy to advance at a good pace without risking too many resources. Such indicators are produced and tracked by the monetary authority of the nation, so they have particular relevance for every analysis. However, there still are data on both unemployment and prices to help out with the diagnosis of the actual economic situation. On one hand, 92% of the metropolitan areas in the nation experienced lower unemployment rates in July 2015 than a year earlier, while only 20 metro areas showed higher rates. On the other, measure of the “core” inflation, which isolates energy and foods price volatility, reaches 1.8 percent change from the first quarter of 2015.

So, if higher production leads to lower unemployment, and the latter in turn leads to higher prices, then the easiest way to identify whether or not an economy is overheating is by analyzing to what extent prices changes are pushed up by falling rates of unemployment. This far of 2015, both conditions are met apparently. Unemployment rates are indeed falling; therefore, it could mean production is moving up. Then, what is a stake currently is to clarify whether or not US production is exceeding its capacity. Again, by looking at capacity indexes, it seems not to be the case right now. But, it is better to make sure it is not happening and thereby ruling out any alternative possibility.

Many econometric methods will help analysts to achieve valuable conclusions.

Perhaps digging into the price setting relation through regressing real wages on profits may yield some clues about the current situation. However, econometric models would severely hide the actual magnitude of oil and energy price volatility. Therefore, a rather quicker alternative lives in qualitative data. In other words, if analysts would like to know whether or not companies would transfer increasing labor costs onto the customers via price increase, what would the answers be? Econometricus.com looked at one of the state-level surveys in which such a question was included. The Texas Manufacturing Survey, which is conducted by the Dallas Fed, inquired among 114 Texas manufactures the following question. “If the labor costs are increasing, are you passing the costs on to customers in the way of price increases?” The survey answers were collected on August 18th through the 26th.

Here is what the study showed.

By sectors, surveyed retailers appear be the only ones prompted to transfer increasing labor costs to customers via price increase. Although very tight, 43.9 percent of the answers indicated that retailers would rise price as an outcome of increasing labor costs, whereas 41.5 would not. The Texas service sector respondents indicated that they would not do so by 54.5. Likewise, manufacturers rejected the possibility by 52.4 percent and considered positively by 35.7 percent. Below are the charts of which all used Texas Manufacturing Survey Data.

Texas Manufacturing Survey. Dallas Fed Aug. 2015.

Texas Manufacturing Survey. Dallas Fed Aug. 2015.

Although it is not feasible to extrapolate survey’s results onto the entire US economy, Texas’ has a particular significance for any current economic analysis. Indeed, Texas’ economy comprises a large share of oil related business, which is precisely the industry that brought this puzzle in the first place. Thus, it seems somewhat clear to conclude that following the Dallas survey, the economy might not be overheating currently.

Texas Manufacturing Survey. Dallas Fed Aug. 2015.

Texas Manufacturing Survey. Dallas Fed Aug. 2015.

So, what does these data tell economists about the US economy?

Although some would answer it says little because of its sample size and geographic limits, and its business size aggregation, there are some hints within the survey. First, it could be said that companies are currently absorbing the cost of growing, which might indicate that they are indeed venturing and the economy is expanding. So far so good. The concerns, though, stem from the speed of such expansion, which is hard to identify by using these data. But again, it is important to check Federal Reserve Data on industrial production and capacity utilization, which would yield some confidence against overheating. Second, although business size matters for determining whether or not increasing labor costs can be transferred to the customer via prices, the fact that retailers stand out in the survey must mean something for analysts. According to these data, retail appears to be the most sensitive sector right now; therefore, the 1.8 “core” inflation might be reflecting inflationary pressures solely generated by retailers.

Texas Manufacturing Survey. Dallas Fed Aug. 2015.

Texas Manufacturing Survey. Dallas Fed Aug. 2015.

Texas Manufacturing Survey. Dallas Fed Aug. 2015.

Texas Manufacturing Survey. Dallas Fed Aug. 2015.

Note:

The Dallas Fed conducts the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey monthly to obtain a timely assessment of the state’s factory activity. Data were collected Aug. 18–26, and 114 Texas manufacturers responded to the survey. Firms are asked whether output, employment, orders, prices and other indicators increased, decreased or remained unchanged over the previous month.

 

 

It’s time to look at price changes without accounting for oil price effect.

After a year of declining crude oil prices which forged price spillovers all over the US economy, it is time for economists to look at price changes without accounting for the petrol effect. So far, 2015 has been a year in which dropping gas prices have affected almost every index from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Indeed, the Consumer Price Index started to decline since summer 2014 when the price of crude oil marked roughly U$107 per barrel. Since then, the Consumer Price Index declined continuously until January 2015. Likewise, the Producer Price Index, which behaves similarly, followed the decline until the beginning of the current year. However, both indexes started to increase from negative territory to positive areas up to 0.4 percent in July 2015, which is particularly the case of Producer Price Index.

So, if economists believed that oil prices accounted vastly for the overall decrease on Inflation, then, what is going on now with the hike in Indexes since oil prices are still low? The clear answer is that inflation has begun to bounce back.

Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index

Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index

Price statistics have begun to move wider than they did before the summer of 2014:

Generally speaking, data in Price Indexes show that price statistics have begun to move wider than they did before the summer of 2014. This trend marks a year of some sort of stagnation in Indexes that can be traced back to the spring of 2013. This period between summer 2013 and the summer 2014 looks almost flat for both indexes. Right after such a flat period, oil prices started to drop and so did both indexes. However, oil prices are still at record lows whereas the indexes started to rebound.

Therefore, it is time to scrutinize indexes in order to establish to what extent oil prices are still dragging down arithmetically consumer prices, and at the same time looking at the origin of current monetary pressures. By isolating prices from oil effect, several conclusions on prices can be drawn. First, inflation rate without accounting for energy prices, is higher than what got reported officially. Second, prices for “guest rooms”, which is to say tourism, may indicate people are spending conspicuously. And third, almost everything else -independent from oil- is increasing.

Final Demand Index less Foods and Energy.

Final Demand Index less Foods and Energy.

For instance, “in July, a 3.1 percent advance in margins for building materials, paint, and hardware wholesaling was a major factor in the increase in prices for services for intermediate demand. Furthermore, “the indexes for processed goods and feeds and for processed materials less food and energy moved up 0.9 percent and 0.1 percent respectively”, reported the US Bureau of Labor Statistics last August 14th 2015.

More in detail and in regards to final demand services, “over 40 percent of July increase in the index for final demand services is attributable to prices for “guest room rental”, which jumped 9.9 percent”. Clearly, prices are moving up whenever oil effect gets removed from calculations.

Expect an increase in interest rates:

US monetary authorities should be aware of these recent trends for sure. Therefore, it is reasonable to expect an increase in interest rates in order to curb down excessive consumer spending, particularly whatever spending gets associated with “guest room rentals”. Nonetheless, although this conclusion is drawn exclusively from the point of view of price stability, such a thing happens to be the main mandate of central banks.

14 Data Sources, Surveys and Metrics for Doing Research on U.S. Macroeconomic Performance.

If your research project encompasses facts on the Macroeconomic Performance of the U.S. Economy, here are some useful data sources and metrics that might illuminate insights for your research. Although there might be some discrepancies between what you narrowed as your research question and the data sources showed below, chances are you will find a set of metrics that might capture a good proxy for your research topic.

Look through the list and then identify a possible match between your research question and the data source:

1. Gross Domestic Product (Regional, State, Metropolitan Area): U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
2. Money Stock Measures: Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors.
3. U.S. Imports and Exports Price Indexes: U.S. bureau of Labor Statistics.
4. Selected Interest Rates: Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors.
5. Consumer Price Index / Producer Price Index: U.S. bureau of Labor Statistics.
6. Federal Open Market Committee Minutes: Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors.
7. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization: Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors.
8. Monthly Treasury Statement: U.S. Bureau of the Fiscal Service.
9. Consumer Credit: Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors.
10. U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
11. Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey: Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors.
12. Beige Book. Summary of commentary on Current Economic Conditions: Federal Reserve System, Board of Governors. By District
13. U.S. International Transaction – Current Account: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
14. State and Local Tax revenue: U.S. Census Bureau.

We can support your research:

Econometricus.com helps Social and Political Scientist Researchers in understanding the economic situation of a specific industry, sector or policy by looking at the United States’ Macroeconomic environment. Econometricus.com may guide you through empirical data on Economic Growth, Monetary Pressures, Fiscal Spending, Current Account, and Employment. Applied-Analysis can be either “Snapshots of the U.S. Economy” or historic trends (Time-series Analysis). Our clients can rely on a thorough and exhaustive data driven analysis that illuminates forecasting and economic decision-making. Clients may down-size or augment the scope of the research as to tailor it to their needs.

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Where 0.8 percent US’ Inflation came from?

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.8 percent from December 2013 through December 2014, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on January 16th 2015. This small increase represents the second-smallest December-December increase since 1965. Energy prices in general dragged the average down with a sharp drop in Gasoline prices of about -21 percent change over the year, though Energy in general increased a little more than 10 percent. Indexes for both Food and Rent rose 3.4 percent during 2014. The Consumer Price Index is a measure of the average change in prices of goods and services purchased on a daily basis by US households. Prices are collected monthly in 87 urban areas from roughly 26,000 retail stores and 4,000 housing units. The US Federal Reserve Bank aims at a 2 percent increase in the Consumer Price Index.

Although Consumer Price Index is a good statistical measure, its own aggregation as an average may lead to wrong conclusions. A more detailed approach on price changes can be done by looking at each good’s and service’s average price change. The graph below shows average price changes for the major 30 goods and services, which were selected by their weight relevance in the CPI calculation (higher than 1.0). These are the goods and services that matter the most for a day-to-day household tracking expenses.

Major 30 CPI

As the graph shows the biggest drop in prices were on energy related goods and services. Gasoline prices dropped roughly -21 percent through the year. Wireless telephone services also decreased its price by -4 percent approximately. Women’s and girl’s apparel fell -3.6 percent along 2014, whereas Apparel in general did so by -2 percent. Read the entire BLS’ report.

On the other hand, the index that increased the most during 2014 was the one related to protein food. Meats, poultry, fish and eggs increased their prices by 9.2 percent nearly, whereas Food in general increased 3.4 percent. Prescription drugs were up 6.4 percent. Rent of primary residencies were augmented by 3.4 percent.

An even more detailed information about Price changes by goods and services can be found in the list below. The list is organized by alphabetical order:

Expenditure category followed by CPI percent change.
Admission to movies, theaters, and concerts 0.4
Admission to sporting events 2.7
Admissions 0.7
Airline fare -4.7
Alcoholic beverages 1.3
Alcoholic beverages at home 0.7
Alcoholic beverages away from home 2.2
All items 0.8
All items less food and energy 1.6
Apparel -2
Apparel services other than laundry and dry cleaning 1.8
Apples -2.3
Appliances -5.2
Audio discs, tapes and other media -3.6
Audio equipment -7.3
Automobile service clubs -0.4
Baby food 2.1
Bacon and related products -1
Bacon, breakfast sausage, and related products 2.4
Bakery products 0.9
Bananas -0.7
Bedroom furniture -2.4
Beef and veal 18.7
Beer, ale, and other malt beverages at home 0.7
Beer, ale, and other malt beverages away from home 2.1
Beverage materials including coffee and tea 2.6
Boys’ and girls’ footwear 6.1
Boys’ apparel -2.7
Bread 1.2
Bread other than white 0.8
Breakfast cereal 1.3
Breakfast sausage and related products 7.3
Butter 22.5
Butter and margarine 11.6
Cable and satellite television and radio service 2.2
Cakes, cupcakes, and cookies 0.6
Candy and chewing gum 1.8
Canned fruits 0.5
Canned fruits and vegetables -0.2
Canned vegetables 0
Car and truck rental 0
Carbonated drinks 1.4
Care of invalids and elderly at home 1.8
Cereals and bakery products 0.5
Cereals and cereal products -0.3
Checking account and other bank services 0.1
Cheese and related products 8.2
Chicken 2.1
Child care and nursery school 2.2
Cigarettes 3.1
Citrus fruits 5.4
Clocks, lamps, and decorator items -5.8
Club dues and fees for participant sports and group exercises 0.4
Coffee 3.6
College textbooks 5
College tuition and fees 3.4
Commodities less food and energy commodities -0.8
Computer software and accessories -1.2
Cookies -0.2
Cosmetics, perfume, bath, nail preparations and implements 1
Crackers, bread, and cracker products 1
Dairy and related products 5.3
Delivery services 1.1
Dental services 1.8
Dishes and flatware -6.7
Distilled spirits at home 0.9
Distilled spirits away from home 2.2
Distilled spirits, excluding whiskey, at home 0.8
Domestic services 1.2
Dried beans, peas, and lentils 4.6
Education and communication commodities -4.9
Education and communication services 0.9
Educational books and supplies 4.6
Eggs 10.7
Electricity 3.1
Elementary and high school tuition and fees 4
Energy -10.6
Energy commodities -20.5
Energy services 3.7
Eyeglasses and eye care 2.6
Fats and oils 1
Fees for lessons or instructions 2
Film and photographic supplies 23.4
Film processing 3.8
Financial services 3.5
Fish and seafood 4.3
Floor coverings 0.8
Flour and prepared flour mixes -1.9
Food 3.4
Food at elementary and secondary schools 2.3
Food at employee sites and schools 1.8
Food at home 3.7
Food away from home 3
Food from vending machines and mobile vendors 0.5
Footwear 2.8
Frankfurters 12.1
Fresh and frozen chicken parts 1.6
Fresh biscuits, rolls, muffins 1.9
Fresh cakes and cupcakes 1.5
Fresh fish and seafood 5.6
Fresh fruits 3.6
Fresh fruits and vegetables 4.1
Fresh milk other than whole 4.1
Fresh sweetrolls, coffeecakes, doughnuts 0.6
Fresh vegetables 4.6
Fresh whole chicken 3
Fresh whole milk 5.2
Frozen and freeze dried prepared foods 1.9
Frozen and refrigerated bakery products, pies, tarts, turnovers -0.5
Frozen fish and seafood 5.2
Frozen fruits and vegetables 1.5
Frozen noncarbonated juices and drinks 2.3
Frozen vegetables 0.9
Fruits and vegetables 3.2
Fuel oil -19.1
Fuel oil and other fuels -13.7
Full service meals and snacks 3.1
Funeral expenses 1.2
Furniture and bedding -1.6
Garbage and trash collection 1.4
Gardening and lawncare services 4.4
Gasoline (all types) -21
Gasoline, unleaded midgrade -19.6
Gasoline, unleaded premium -18.3
Gasoline, unleaded regular -21.6
Girls’ apparel -4
Hair, dental, shaving, and miscellaneous personal care products -0.3
Haircuts and other personal care services 1.5
Ham 13.1
Ham, excluding canned 14.4
Health insurance -0.5
Hospital and related services 4.5
Hospital services 4.9
Household cleaning products -0.9
Household furnishings and supplies -1.9
Household operations 2.8
Household paper products -0.7
Housekeeping supplies -0.8
Housing at school, excluding board 2.7
Ice cream and related products 3.5
Indoor plants and flowers 1.9
Infants’ and toddlers’ apparel 0.4
Infants’ equipment -0.7
Infants’ furniture
Information technology commodities -9
Inpatient hospital services 5.5
Instant and freeze dried coffee 0.2
Intercity bus fare
Intercity train fare 3.8
Internet services and electronic information providers 1.6
Intracity mass transit 1.1
Intracity transportation 1.1
Jewelry -5.1
Jewelry and watches -4.3
Juices and nonalcoholic drinks 0.1
Lamb and mutton 3.2
Lamb and organ meats 8.8
Land-line telephone services 1.8
Laundry and dry cleaning services 2.2
Laundry equipment -7.4
Leased cars and trucks -0.1
Legal services 1.4
Lettuce 4.4
Limited service meals and snacks 3.2
Living room, kitchen, and dining room furniture -1.9
Lodging away from home 6.3
Lunchmeats 5.8
Major appliances -6.9
Margarine 2.6
Meats 12.7
Meats, poultry, and fish 9.1
Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs 9.2
Medical care commodities 4.8
Medical care services 2.4
Medical equipment and supplies 0.9
Medicinal drugs 5
Men’s and boys’ apparel -3
Men’s apparel -3
Men’s footwear 1.8
Men’s furnishings -2.4
Men’s pants and shorts 1.1
Men’s shirts and sweaters -4.5
Men’s suits, sport coats, and outerwear -7.1
Milk 4.3
Miscellaneous household products -0.7
Miscellaneous personal goods -0.6
Miscellaneous personal services 2.1
Motor fuel -20.8
Motor oil, coolant, and fluids 2.4
Motor vehicle body work 2.1
Motor vehicle fees 0.3
Motor vehicle insurance 4.7
Motor vehicle maintenance and repair 2.1
Motor vehicle maintenance and servicing 2.2
Motor vehicle parts and equipment -0.7
Motor vehicle repair 2
Moving, storage, freight expense 2.1
Music instruments and accessories 2.4
New cars -0.1
New cars and trucks 0.6
New trucks 1.3
New vehicles 0.5
Newspapers and magazines 4.8
Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials 0.7
Nonelectric cookware and tableware -3.7
Nonfrozen noncarbonated juices and drinks -1
Nonprescription drugs -0.2
Nursing homes and adult day services 2.9
Olives, pickles, relishes 0.2
Oranges, including tangerines 3.7
Other appliances -3.1
Other bakery products 0.4
Other beverage materials including tea 1
Other condiments 1.8
Other dairy and related products 3.7
Other fats and oils including peanut butter -2.5
Other food at home 1.5
Other food away from home 2
Other foods 1.7
Other fresh fruits 6.2
Other fresh vegetables 2.3
Other furniture 0.8
Other goods 1.3
Other household equipment and furnishings -3.9
Other intercity transportation -0.7
Other linens -5.2
Other lodging away from home including hotels and motels 7.3
Other meats 7.4
Other miscellaneous foods 1.6
Other motor fuels -11.9
Other personal services 1.9
Other pork including roasts and picnics 12.5
Other poultry including turkey -0.5
Other processed fruits and vegetables including dried 0.2
Other recreation services 0.8
Other recreational goods -3.8
Other sweets -0.2
Other video equipment -0.8
Outdoor equipment and supplies -0.3
Outpatient hospital services 4.5
Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence 2.6
Owners’ equivalent rent of residences 2.6
Parking and other fees 2.2
Parking fees and tolls 2.7
Peanut butter -3.6
Personal care products 0.3
Personal care services 1.5
Personal computers and peripheral equipment -10.5
Pet food 0.4
Pet services 1.8
Pet services including veterinary 2.7
Pets and pet products 0.3
Photographer fees 1.1
Photographers and film processing 2.2
Photographic equipment -6.1
Photographic equipment and supplies -2.2
Physicians’ services 1.5
Pork 8.2
Pork chops 10.1
Postage 4.1
Postage and delivery services 3.8
Potatoes -1.8
Poultry 1.6
Prepared salads 3.9
Prescription drugs 6.4
Processed fish and seafood 3
Processed fruits and vegetables 0.4
Professional services 1.7
Propane, kerosene, and firewood -4.6
Public transportation -2.9
Purchase of pets, pet supplies, accessories 0.4
Recreation commodities -2.6
Recreation services 1.5
Recreational books -0.9
Recreational reading materials 2.2
Rent of primary residence 3.4
Rent of shelter 2.9
Rental of video or audio discs and other media 1.4
Repair of household items 4
Rice -2.8
Rice, pasta, cornmeal -2.1
Roasted coffee 4.2
Salad dressing -4.3
Salt and other seasonings and spices 4.8
Sauces and gravies 1.7
Services by other medical professionals 2
Services less energy services 2.4
Sewing machines, fabric and supplies 0.1
Shelf stable fish and seafood 1.3
Shelter 2.9
Ship fare -1.9
Snacks 1.8
Soups -0.6
Spices, seasonings, condiments, sauces 2.2
Sporting goods -2.2
Sports equipment -3.1
Sports vehicles including bicycles -1.1
State motor vehicle registration and license fees -1
Stationery, stationery supplies, gift wrap 0
Sugar and artificial sweeteners 0.2
Sugar and sweets 1.1
Tax return preparation and other accounting fees 6.1
Technical and business school tuition and fees 1.8
Telephone hardware, calculators, and other consumer information items -9.9
Telephone services -2.1
Televisions -16.7
Tenants’ and household insurance 5.6
Tires -1.9
Tobacco and smoking products 3
Tobacco products other than cigarettes 1.4
Tomatoes 16.5
Tools, hardware and supplies 0.8
Tools, hardware, outdoor equipment and supplies 0.1
Toys -5.4
Toys, games, hobbies and playground equipment -2.9
Transportation commodities less motor fuel -0.9
Transportation services 1.7
Tuition, other school fees, and childcare 3.2
Uncooked beef roasts 20.6
Uncooked beef steaks 16
Uncooked ground beef 19.2
Uncooked other beef and veal 24
Used cars and trucks -4.2
Utility (piped) gas service 5.8
Vehicle accessories other than tires 1.7
Vehicle parts and equipment other than tires 1.5
Veterinarian services 2.9
Video and audio products -10.5
Video and audio services 1.8
Video discs and other media -6.3
Video discs and other media, including rental of video and audio -3
Watches -1
Water and sewer and trash collection services 4.6
Water and sewerage maintenance 5.6
Whiskey at home 1.5
White bread 0.9
Window and floor coverings and other linens -3.6
Window coverings -2.3
Wine at home 0.6
Wine away from home 2
Wireless telephone services -4
Women’s and girls’ apparel -3.6
Women’s apparel -3.5
Women’s dresses 1.6
Women’s footwear 1.7
Women’s outerwear 3.6
Women’s suits and separates -8.2
Women’s underwear, nightwear, sportswear and accessories -0.3