One of the most recurrent questions in quantitative research refers to on how to assess and rank the relevance of variables included in multiple regression models. This type of uncertainty arises most of the time when researches prioritize data mining over well-thought theories. Recently, a contact of mine in social media formulated the following question: … Continue reading Implications of “Regression Fishing” over Cogent Modeling.
In a previous post, I covered how heteroscedasticity "happened" to me. The anecdote I mentioned mostly pertains to time series data. Given the purpose of the research that I was developing back then, change over time played a key factor in the variables I analyzed. The fact that the rate of change manifested over time … Continue reading I recognized Heteroscedasticity by running this flawed regression.
Sometimes it is good to learn about issues such as heteroscedasticity by empirically identifying them. Here is how I detected heteroscedasticity was present in time series analysis. I started working on a research project intended to measure how Massachusetts economy had recovery from the Great Recession of 2009. Neither was it a sophisticated research, nor … Continue reading Here is the story of how I met heteroscedasticity.
Economists and policy analysts continue to wonder what is going on in the U.S. economy currently. Most of the uncertainty stems from both the anemic pace of economic growth as well as from fears of a new recession. In regards to economic growth, analysts point out to sluggish changes in productivity, while fears of new … Continue reading The Current Need for Mixed Methods in Economics.
One month of weak payroll data does not make a crisis. The US economy appears to have added only 160,000 new jobs during the month of April in 2016, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. A similar number was published earlier in that week by the payroll firm ADP. Although the slowdown in … Continue reading U.S. economic slowdown? Look at Real Estate labor market.
Although the Federal Open Market Committee (hereafter FOMC) March’s meeting on monetary policy focused on what apparently was a disagreement over the timing for modifying the Federal Bonds interest rates, the minutes indicate that the disagreement is not only on timing issues but also on exchange rate challenges. Not only does the Fed struggle with … Continue reading Unemployment √. Inflation √. So… what is the Fed worrying about?
Ever since Florida surpassed New York as the third most populous state in the nation, journalists started to document the ways in which the South region of the United States began attracting young sun-lovers enthusiasts. Two factors have been identified as drivers of an apparent migration from the north towards the south. On one hand, … Continue reading Why is America’s center of gravity shifting South and West?
When it comes to loan rates, the one that concerns the most regular consumers is the mortgage loan interest rate. This past February 2016 a 30-year mortgage interest rate averaged 3.66 percent accordingly to Freddie Mac, whereas the homeownership stubbornly kept its 63 percent level. So, with the mortgage interest rates averaging 3.53 percent (15-year … Continue reading Why Is the Homeownership Rate Still Falling? An alternative explanation.
The National Association of Realtors communicated today that its index of Pending Homes Sales increased 3.5 percent in February 2016. This indicator offers valuable insight for housing market analysis here in the United States. Indeed, the index makes up a leading indicator of housing market and forecasts since it is based on signed real estate … Continue reading Eight Data Sources for Research on U.S. Housing Market.
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