Categories: In the news., Macroeconomics, Statistics and Time Series.
NBER News
- Political Dynasties, Term Limits and Female Political Empowerment: Evidence from the Philippines -- by Julien Labonne, Sahar Parsa, Pablo QuerubínWe investigate the effect of term limits on female political representation. Using data from Philippine municipalities where strict term limits have been in place since 1987, we show that term limits led to a large increase in the number of women running and winning in mayoral elections. However, we show that this increase is entirely […]
- Magnification of the ‘China Shock’ Through the U.S. Housing Market -- by Yuan Xu, Hong Ma, Robert C. FeenstraThe ‘China shock’ operated in part through the housing market, and that is an important reason why the China shock was as big as it was. If housing prices had not responded at all to the China shock, then the total employment effect of the China shock would have been reduced by more than one-half. […]
- Partisanship and Survey Refusal -- by Mark Borgschulte, Heepyung Cho, Darren LubotskySurvey refusal in the Current Population Survey (CPS) has tripled over the last decade. This rise coincides with the emergence of rhetoric, largely from the political right, questioning the accuracy and integrity of government statistics. We examine how support for the Tea Party and the Republican party have affected CPS refusal rates and whether households […]
- Did Trump's Trade War Impact the 2018 Election? -- by Emily J. Blanchard, Chad P. Bown, Davin ChorWe find that Republican candidates lost support in the 2018 congressional election in counties more exposed to trade retaliation, but saw no commensurate electoral gains from US tariff protection. The electoral losses were driven by retaliatory tariffs on agricultural products, and were only partially mitigated by the US agricultural subsidies announced in summer 2018. Republicans […]
- The Leverage Factor: Credit Cycles and Asset Returns -- by Josh Davis, Alan M. TaylorResearch finds strong links between credit booms and macroeconomic outcomes like financial crises and output growth. Are impacts also seen in financial asset prices? We document this robust and significant connection for the first time using a large sample of historical data for many countries. Credit boom periods tend to be followed by unusually low […]
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