Macroeconomics

U.S. economic slowdown? Look at Real Estate labor market.

One month of weak payroll data does not make a crisis. The US economy appears to have added only 160,000 new jobs during the month of April in 2016, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday. A similar number was published earlier in that week by the payroll firm ADP. Although the slowdown in hiring came from local and federal government (-11,000) as well as from mining (8,000), the sector that should get more attention is Real Estate and Leasing Services. Indeed, this sector could be revealing what is happening in the current economic conditions.

For the last economic quarter, analysts have seen employment growth being incongruent when compared to GDP growth. And now that the employment payroll looks weak, many analysts would like to rush and call out an economic recession. However, it is too soon for asserting anything akin a crisis mainly because the slowdown in hiring came from local and federal government (-11,000) as well as from mining (8,000). Those two sectors were expected not to grow given that oil prices are still low, and the electoral cycle continues. Retail trade also failed to add jobs at the same pace the sector was adding during the past three months, but the -3,000 jobs slowdown is not alarming since the industry’s previous growth was strong.

Otherwise, the sector that should get more attention is Real Estate and Leasing Services as the spring season brings business to their stores. Establishing how busy real estate agents are around this time of the year could shed light onto how the economy is running actually for two reasons. Not only because weather season affects their business cycle, but also because their business depends highly on the interest rate. In fact, Real Estate labor market seems anemic lately. The sector’s change over the month of April seems to have added about 600 new jobs, which is certainly poor for what the season should have demanded.

The fact that housing sales depend on interest rates allows for inferences on how expectations on Federal Reserve bonds influence the job market. In other words, the anemic employment growth in Real Estate appears not to derive from a sluggish demand for housing as it does from interest rate expectations. Thus, persistent market speculations on rising interest rates could have had an effect on current consumer expectation on both housing and consumption. Therefore, it seems logical to think that because of that companies halted hiring in April, especially the Real Estate ones. Only time will unveil the outcome though.

The focus right now is on the next meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee in which monetary policy maker will decide again whether to increase the rates or leave them unchanged.

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