Macroeconomics

“Core” inflation rate will have huge influence on monetary policy next month.

Second Estimates for real GDP growth in the United States indicate that the economy grew at 3.7 percent during the second quarter of 2015 after correcting by price change. The report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis informs that the change mainly derived from positive contribution of consumer spending, exports, and spending of state and local governments. These increases are said to have been offset by a deceleration in private inventory investment, federal government investment, and residential fixed investment. The revised figure for first quarter of 2015 went up from -0.7 percent to 0.6 percent.

Besides real GDP calculations stand the estimates for prices changes in goods and purchases made by American residents that the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) does simultaneously to the calculations made by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). In this regard, this time around the second quarter, prices had a positive growth of roughly 1.6 percent, which the BEA reports was derived from an increase in both consumer prices, and prices paid by local and state governments. Please bear in mind that, in the first quarter of 2015, prices were said to have dragged down the GDP numbers since the index decreased by roughly 1.1 percent change.

H&M Store in Broadway NYC. By Catherine De Las Salas. Summer 2015.

H&M Store in Broadway NYC. By Catherine De Las Salas. Summer 2015.

These price changes are actually good news for the Federal Reserve System for whom a moderate upswing in inflation helps them to achieve their yearly monetary goal of 2.0 percent inflation rate. And for those of whom like to make economic forecast, these figures mount onto their analysis for determining whether or not the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates in September. So, although real GDP measures are certainly corrected for price changes, the BEA’s price index will -on its own- have huge influence on monetary policy options for the months to come.

Thus, relevant data nowadays stem from BEA’s “core” inflation rate, which is to say price change without food prices and energy prices. Indeed, when figures isolate energy and foods volatility, the measure of inflation reaches 1.8 percent change from the first quarter of 2015. These changes in prices and output rightly affect the wallet of American residents. Price changes, plus increases in output -which reflect decreases in unemployment rate- may take consumer and producers to edge up their spending, which was one of the factor behind positive change in real GDP growth as mentioned above. Then, whenever spending tends to accelerate beyond its capacity the Federal Reserve reacts with an increase in interests rates. Even though one could argue that such is not currently the case, given that data on capacity utilization clearly shows that the American Economy has room to further spending, the BEA’s “core” inflation will be the measure that could possible make Federal Reserve Officials think twice about interest rates.

So, the puzzle about what the Federal Reserve will end up doing next Federal Open Market Committee meeting is fourfold, and it will derive from the different sources of data: first, price change data from BEA, which BEA claims to be way more “accurate” than BLS’. GDP growth from BEA, which is calculated by correcting price changes with their own price index. Price change from BLS, which may vary from BEA’s calculations. And capacity utilization from the Federal Reserve, which is whom finally decides on interest rates changes.

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