Macroeconomics

Mixed feelings on estimated wholesales for November 2014.

Mixed feelings on estimated wholesales for November 2014. Wholesales of durable goods increased, whereas nondurable goods decreased its level compared to the same statistics one year ago. Estimated November 2014 sales for wholesalers were U$452.2 billion. Wholesales went up by 2.4% compared to the same month of 2013. November sales of durable goods increased 6.3% when compared to the same month 2013. Sales of non-durable goods went down by an almost imperceptible 0.8% (there are not enough data to conclude change was different than zero).

Sales 1 Wholesale trader’s statistics give a hint on what consumption is being driven by. In spite of data being limited by a short timeframe, what might be conclusive is that people may be investing for the long term rather than consuming for the short term. It is important to note that trends on sales (therefore on consumption) will depend on what the Federal Reserve do in monetary policy regards in 2015. Besides, good numbers on employment levels also stimulates the economic perspectives for both producers and wholesale traders.

sales 2In terms of the ratio between inventory and sales, the graph below depicts how low estimated sales were for Machinery, Hardware and even Automotive goods for November 2014. On the other hand Computer Equipment account shows strong sales compare to what the industry has on stock. Depending on actual December sales’ levels, this data may point out to some future either increases or decreases in prices of such goods. The greater the stock, the greater the chance for lower price in the near future.

sales 3
On the other hand, inventories of wholesale traders –excluding manufacturers- were $547.2 billion. November inventories of durable goods were 8.9 percent up compared to 2013. Inventories of non-durable goods increased 4.4 percent compared to the same month 2013. Durable goods category comprises goods such as Automobiles, furniture, professional equipment and machinery among others. Non-durable goods category comprises groceries, paper, petroleum, and apparel among others.

sales 4All data used in graphs are preliminary non-revised data. Data will be revised and released by February 10th 2015. Data have been adjusted by season. Data have not been adjusted by inflation.

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